Fear makes people stick with the devil they know instead of taking a chance on change. When thinking of whether control of Congress will Shift to the Democrats, my mind wonders back to the truth of this psychological bias. Something would have to go very, very wrong for Democrats not to control the House come January, but the Senate – even with Trump approval ratings as low as they are and gas and grocery prices as high as they are – is simply not a done deal, no matter what pollster one might be reading.

Republican Susan Collins of Maine will likely remain in office. She is the devil her constituents know and one with a fair amount of stature, both for seniority and perceived independence. These facts will outweigh in-state anger over her support of Brett Kavanaugh, whom she maintains is qualified to sit on the Court, despite the vote to overturn Roe v. Wade.

To vote her out would be to vote out the Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. That is a big deal, made even bigger by her opposition to the president’s tariffs, initial opposition to the Iran war, and opposition to the Big Beautiful Bill on grounds it would cut Medicaid. All of which are pluses to Maine voters. Despite voting with him and Republicans 95 percent of the time, she still manages to be among the three most anti-Trump Republicans in the Senate. I think that gets her over the finish line with room to spare.

The great Senate question of 2026 is on the southwest side of the country, down in Texas. State Representative James Talarico is carrying the hopes and dreams of many a Democratic voter to elect a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in almost 40 years. My political divining rod is having trouble cutting through the static. There is no hard and fast feeling there, but there is fear of deep disappointment for concrete reasons.

I was a resident of Texas and a graduate student at UT Austin the last time Democrats were in political power in the Lone Star State. Ann Richards was governor, and Lloyd Bentsen was the Democratic senator, until he resigned to be President Clinton’s Treasury Secretary. Governor Richards appointed Bob Krueger, a former Texas Congressman to finish Bentsen’s term. Krueger faced a special election after five months of serving and lost to Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison. That was 1993, and there has not been a Democratic Texas Senator since.

I remember conversations in class, with coworkers and with friends all having a similar theme – one that surprised me. I ran in a crowd of mostly yellow-dog Democrats in the most liberal and Democratic city in the state. Yet, in one conversation after another I heard declarations of support for Hutchison, the Republican, over the “weakling” or “wimpy” Democrat. I wonder how many voters are telling pollsters they want Talarico over State Attorney General Ken Paxton but will ultimately vote for the disgraced, survivor of a cowboy who is the devil they know.

All of the polls have Talarico leading, but if you add the number of undecideds with the margin of error, it is just as plausible to see them as tied. The most notable breakdown in the Marist poll is that more than 20 percent of those who support scandal-ridden Paxton say they will vote for him because they don’t like Talarico. I see that, and I hear the “weakling” and “wimpy” conversations about Krueger from thirty-three years ago.

Can the Democrats take the Senate? I believe they can. But with little more than a month out, I see no obvious runaway path for that to happen. It is going to go down to the wire, even if there are no October surprises and no new, aggressive steps at voter suppression. And in places like Texas and Michigan (an analysis for another day), it is going to come down to Black and brown voters getting up and out to take a leap of faith, for they too are inclined toward the devil they know. Though if ever there were a time for exception, this expensive, authoritarian, corruption-filled year would be it.