My political intuition, honed by three decades of countless conversations in newsrooms, green rooms, convention center back rooms, and, nowadays, late-night text conversations, told me Abdul El-Sayed was going to win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by a super small margin. It also told me Black voters would be the main reason the race was close. This is almost certain to be true in any Democratic state primary where there is a high Black population and a candidate who is decidedly left of center, because Black voters like to pick the candidate they think most voters will vote for in the general to beat the Republican. Period.

Though no group is a monolith, certain consistencies are hard to ignore. Blacks are socially/culturally conservative, some for religious reasons, others just because they trust what they know. Some coverage of the race implied just this – that Black voters know and trust establishment Democrats and worry about shaking things up. For some, that is true. Many others are more likely to support the middle-of-the-road candidate simply because they know most Democrat or Independent voters are the ones worried about a shake-up.

That concern is likely what gave Republican nominee Mike Rogers an edge in the general even before Tuesday’s primary, despite deep dissatisfaction with his friend Donald Trump. So, of course, Black voters came out in droves to try to kill that edge by giving Haley Stevens the nomination. The Democratic Party’s most loyal voters want to beat the Republican, first and foremost. The race was therefore never going to be a blowout for El-Sayed. This does not mean Black voters won’t vote for the Democratic Socialist candidate in a district so heavily Democratic when fear of losing to the Republican is minimal.

Looking ahead to the general, Jews disturbed by the Michigan-born, child of Egyptian immigrants’ opposition to U.S. aid to Israel and the Israeli government itself could wind up being the razor thin margin of El-Sayed’s defeat, should he in fact lose by a small margin. Blacks choosing to stay home because they don’t think the Medicare-for-all-supporting doctor will win against Rogers may also throw a monkey wrench into Democrats’ hope of regaining control of the Senate.

But there is another strong probable scenario. Given the surprisingly high number of voters El-Sayed captured in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, an area loyal to Donald Trump in three election cycles, could it be that Independents and Republicans who feel betrayed by the president’s performance thus far, along with native tribal populations whose votes El-Sayed worked hard to win, are the citizens who ultimately keep Rogers from returning to Washington, no matter what the Black and Jewish constituencies decide to do?

The intuition isn’t talking yet. But the whispering has already begun.