We should not be surprised. Donald J. Trump campaigned on correcting Joe Biden‘s alleged failed economy. Instead, he gave the country tariffs that raised the price of a great many things, tariffs the Supreme Court finally declared illegal.

He campaigned on removing illegal-immigrant gang members from the country. Instead, he is removing everyone he can that is not a native-born American citizen, based largely on racial profiling. That includes revoking the legal status of those allowed to be here to turn them into people who are removable.

Finally, he campaigned on ending foreign wars. “America first” was supposed to be the mantra of MAGA. Instead, he has removed Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and has now waged a joint war with Israel against Iran and assassinated its leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

This final point of illegal and contradictory behavior is particularly ironic, as the man himself once accused former President Barack Obama of setting his sights on war with Iran for political reasons. At the time, he claimed it was because the president was unskilled at negotiating a peace. Apparently, Mr. Trump is equally unskilled.

But of course, President Obama not only stayed out of Iran, he also did not go into Syria, a country where he himself laid a red line against chemical weapons use, saying it would justify U.S. military intervention. But when Syrian leaders crossed that line, Mr. Obama did not send troops. The 47th president isn’t nearly as cautious about U.S. military intervention, of course. We should not be surprised, but we should be very worried.

Which international leader is the next U.S. (or Israeli?) target for removal? Where will Iran target its retaliatory attacks? Can they make it into U.S. airspace with war planes? Doubtful. But could something stealth happen, like another 9/11? It feels foolish to rule that out.

It’s worth noting that, like Nicolás Maduro, the Ayatollah Khamenei was an awful dictator, repressive to his people and murderous. His removal is a good thing for the Iranian people. But there is no obvious case – nor was one made by the president in a State of the Union address that preceded the attack by less than a week – for the U.S. to be the agent of that change in leadership.

Some believe that the missile attack on nuclear sites in Iran seven months ago was a case of President Trump being persuaded to do the bidding of Benjamin Netanyahu, and that the same may be true of this joint war. But with his poll numbers cratering, particularly among Independents, Mr. Trump‘s awareness of what is best for him is virtually guaranteed to be front of mind.

Donald Trump has been losing favor with his supporters over the impact of tariffs on their bank accounts and over the appearance of a cover-up, with respect to the protection of powerful offenders in the Epstein files. He is even losing favor with some supporters over the brutality attached to what was supposed to be a far narrower approach to deportation of those in the country illegally. But a show of military might has a high probability of dampening the discontent of MAGA members. Additionally, few American citizens I know want to be unsupportive of military members who are going into harms way. It’s a bad look.

There have already been celebrations in the streets of U.S. cities by Iranian Americans ecstatic over the death of Khamenei. We should expect the president’s poll numbers to get a bump, even as U.S. soldiers lose their lives in this operation, as at least three already have. But it is conceivable that even without the approval of his base or prominent Republicans in the manosphere, like Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump is willing to play a real-life game of Battleship simply to satisfy a strongman self-image. After all, he gave the orders from Mar-a-Lago and bombing began shortly after a fundraising party. He seems to be enjoying the powers of Commander-in-Chief simply because he can.

More will be revealed as the U.S. continues a bombing campaign, remaining Iranian leaders retaliate and restructure their governing structure and more U.S. soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines deploy. But the public will need to carefully examine all revelations from an administration where few are willing to be a factual, uncompromised source for what is truly going on and why.

This country made it through the Iraq War and the Vietnam War well before it because the citizenry all had the same definition of the words “fact” and “truth.” We also had a citizenry where large numbers did not value the occupant of the Oval Office more than it valued the presidency itself. We no longer have either of those things.

All bets are off as to where this will go and whether the public will even know the full measure of damage and threat. What is a safe bet is that Donald Trump has waged this war for himself – and perhaps out of friendship and admiration for Benjamin Netanyahu. While whatever comes next may shock our sensibilities, nothing should really be a surprise.